Spring 2017

Issue 30 · analyzed

34 ideas

pitch long worked
+44.2%
YUMC Yum China Holdings, Inc.
Pershing Square Challenge

Yum China is well-positioned to capitalize on the growing demand for fast food in China, with a strong brand presence and a robust expansion strategy. The company has demonstrated consistent revenue growth and profitabil…

pitch long failed
-40.1%
ALK Alaska Air Group, Inc.
Pershing Square Challenge

Alaska Airlines has a strong competitive position in the U.S. airline industry, with a focus on operational efficiency and customer service. The company is expected to benefit from industry consolidation and rising trave…

pitch long worked
+490.4%
GLW Corning Incorporated
Pershing Square Challenge

Corning is a leader in specialty glass and ceramics, with strong growth prospects driven by demand in the technology and telecommunications sectors. The company's innovative products and solid financials make it an attra…

pitch long worked
+391.2%
DOL Dollarama Inc.
Pershing Square Challenge

Dollarama is well-positioned in the discount retail sector, benefiting from consumer trends towards value shopping. The company's strong store expansion and solid financial performance make it a compelling investment opp…

position long inconclusive
SHW Sherwin-Williams Company

Sherwin-Williams is a high-quality business that benefits from strong brand loyalty and a robust distribution network. Its consistent performance and growth potential in the paint and coatings industry make it a solid in…

position long
SBER Sberbank

Sberbank has a strong market position with close to 50% market share of Russian retail deposits and is well-capitalized, allowing it to withstand economic downturns. The management's decision to avoid government capital …

position long
GAZP Gazprom

Gazprom possesses some of the most undervalued energy assets globally, with decent corporate governance and earnings primarily in U.S. dollars. The Russian government's interest in dividends aligns with minority sharehol…

pitch long worked
+44.0%
YUMC Yum China Holdings, Inc.
2017 Pershing Square Challenge

YUMC is at an inflection point with a unique buying opportunity due to stabilizing same store sales growth (SSSG) after years of volatility. The company has improved its food safety processes, has a strong consumer brand…

pitch long inconclusive
ALK Alaska Air Group, Inc.

Alaska Airlines is expected to gain significant market share in California, which presents a $3 billion incremental revenue opportunity. The street underestimates Alaska's cost advantages and its ability to profitably ex…

pitch long failed
-40.1%
ALK Alaska Air Group, Inc.
2017 Pershing Square Challenge

Alaska Airlines is positioned to become the dominant player on the West Coast due to its low-cost structure and potential for capacity expansion at key airports like LAX and SFO. The company has opportunities to swap gat…

pitch long worked
+420.6%
GLW Corning Incorporated

Corning is undervalued due to market misperceptions about its core earning assets and growth potential in optical fiber and Gorilla Glass. With a projected earnings power of $2.27 per diluted share for 2019, Corning shou…

pitch long worked
+495.4%
GLW Corning Incorporated
2017 Pershing Square Challenge

Corning is expected to achieve a multiple in the high teens due to a continued ROIC inflection driven by cash returns and the ability to grow sales without significant capex. The market is overlooking growth opportunitie…

position long inconclusive
DOL Dollarama Inc.

Dollarama is considered a strong investment due to its robust business model and growth potential in the discount retail sector.

pitch long worked
+64.8%
DOL Dollarama Inc.

Dollarama is positioned for significant growth with a projected EPS increase to ~$10 over the next five years, driven by new store openings, same-store sales growth, and share buybacks. The market undervalues its potenti…

position long inconclusive
SHW Sherwin-Williams Company

Sherwin-Williams has compounded at approximately 22% since the recovery of 2009 and around 15.5% over the past thirty years. The company boasts high returns on invested capital of 30% or better and has a strong distribut…

position long inconclusive
CL Colgate-Palmolive Company

Colgate may get expensive at times, but it provides stability to the portfolio with very little downside risk, despite not being the best IRR idea. It serves as an anchor position due to its consistent performance and re…

position long inconclusive
MA MasterCard Incorporated

MasterCard is effectively reducing the entropy associated with cash transactions by facilitating more efficient credit and debit transactions, positioning itself as a leader in the payment processing industry.

position long inconclusive
V Visa Inc.

Visa, like MasterCard, is also focused on reducing transaction inefficiencies associated with cash, thereby enhancing its competitive advantage in the payment processing sector.

position long inconclusive
TDG TransDigm Group Incorporated

While TransDigm is a great business run by competent management, the investor has become uncomfortable with the company's focus on shorter-term profitability at the expense of long-term resilience, leading them to step a…

position short inconclusive
IBM International Business Machines Corporation

The investor sold IBM as they became less comfortable with its long-term competitive advantage in enterprise due to the rise of Amazon AWS, and they prefer investments with multiple ways to win rather than path-dependent…

position long inconclusive
PSX Phillips 66

Although Phillips 66 has been a good investment, the investor feels uncertain about the next ten years for a significant portion of its business, particularly refining, due to the technological cost curve coming from sol…

position long inconclusive
DHR Danaher Corporation

Danaher is viewed as a constantly evolving, systemic transformation with a culture focused on continuous improvement. The company's adaptive and resilient system allows it to react and change course effectively, giving c…

position long inconclusive
AMZN Amazon.com, Inc.

We added Amazon to the portfolio this year, and it was one of those investments that we were fighting our own biases versus understanding the propensity and the potentiality of the outcome that was staring us in the face…

pitch long worked
+846.9%
005930.KS Samsung Electronics Co., Ltd.
null

Samsung Electronics was undervalued due to concerns about its smartphone market share loss and a slowdown in its DRAM semiconductor business. However, the consolidation in the DRAM market suggested that pricing would rem…

pitch long inconclusive
005930 Samsung Electronics Co., Ltd.
null

Samsung Electronics is undervalued due to its strong free cash flow generation and significant cash reserves exceeding $60 billion. The company's disciplined capital allocation and potential for returning cash to shareho…

pitch short inconclusive
SJM The J.M. Smucker Company
null

Nick Briody pitches a short on Smucker’s, indicating concerns about the company's valuation and potential challenges ahead.

position long inconclusive
HLF Herbalife Nutrition Ltd.

Cliff Sosin believes Herbalife is a legitimate company with strong economics and a loyal customer base. Despite initial skepticism influenced by a short seller's presentation, Sosin's research revealed that Herbalife's t…

position long inconclusive
CACC Credit Acceptance Corporation

Credit Acceptance Corp. is part of a portfolio that focuses on subprime lending, which is often misunderstood. The company plays a crucial role in providing financing options to individuals who may not qualify for tradit…

position long inconclusive
CMPR Cimpress N.V.

Cimpress is included in the portfolio as a stable investment alongside other positions, indicating a diversified approach to investing in companies with growth potential.

position long inconclusive
AHT.L Ashtead Group

Ashtead Group is a rental company that is part of a diversified investment strategy, focusing on companies that provide essential services and have growth potential in the rental market.

position long inconclusive
WRLD World Acceptance Corporation

WRLD operates in the installment lending space, which is more user-friendly than payday lending. The company has a strong community presence and a loyal customer base, which supports its financial performance. Recent man…

pitch long partial
+43.9%
YUMC Yum China Holdings, Inc.
null

We recommend a long on Yum China Holdings (YUMC) with a 2-year price target of $45, offering 35% upside from today’s price of $33. We see a bull-case upside of 61% and an attractive upside/downside ratio of 2.7x. We proj…

position long worked
+64.8%
DOL Dollarama Inc.

The investor believes in the long-term growth potential of Dollarama, expecting a store count growth of 1,700 stores, which represents a 9.1% CAGR over five years, outperforming the 5% consensus. They also anticipate sus…

pitch long inconclusive
SHW Sherwin-Williams Company

Sherwin Williams is identified as a compounder business that is often overlooked, suggesting it has strong growth potential and stability. The mention of waiting for the right price indicates a strategic approach to inve…