Blue Bird Corporation

BLBD pitch long Erik Listoe

Thesis

We recommend a BUY for Blue Bird Corporation (NASDAQ: BLBD) with a base-case price target of $65, implying a 16.1% IRR through 2027. The company is positioned to benefit from structural tailwinds in the North American school bus market, including fleet electrification and a strong replacement cycle, which will drive robust growth. At its current price of $41, BLBD offers a compelling asymmetric risk-reward profile with upside potential to $110 in a bull-case scenario.

Did it work?

worked confidence: high

The stock price of Blue Bird Corporation has increased by 87.6% since the pitch, significantly exceeding the initial price of $41 and indicating strong performance. The thesis regarding the company's positioning to benefit from structural tailwinds in the school bus market appears to have played out positively, supporting the recommendation to buy. Given that the time elapsed is more than half of the stated horizon until 2027, this performance aligns well with the thesis.

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