Netflix, Inc.
NFLX
pitch
short
Avram Drori
Thesis
Netflix's business model is outdated and unsustainable in the face of increasing competition from cable and telco video on demand services, which have already penetrated a significant portion of the market. The company's growth is stagnating, and as margins shrink, it will struggle to retain customers, particularly as usage declines. A price target of $16 indicates a potential downside of approximately 30% from current levels.
Did it work?
failed
confidence: high
The thesis predicted a decline in Netflix's stock price due to an outdated business model and increasing competition, with a target of $16. However, the stock has actually increased by 241.1%, indicating that the thesis was fundamentally incorrect and the anticipated decline did not materialize.
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