Advance Auto Parts, Inc.
AAP
pitch
long
Joe Fleury, John Gallagher, Seth Kirner
Thesis
We recommend a long position in Advance Auto Parts stock with a three year target price of ~$165, representing a ~100% upside from the current share price of $80. AAP is undervalued due to an inefficient cost structure and has strong barriers to entry, significant free cash flow generation, and attractive growth opportunities in the commercial segment.
Did it work?
failed
confidence: high
The long thesis for Advance Auto Parts anticipated a significant upside of approximately 100% over a three-year horizon. However, after 160 months, the stock has declined by 25.5%, indicating that the investment thesis did not materialize as expected and the company did not achieve the anticipated growth or valuation improvement.
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